創業家對營商環境非常敏感, 因此經濟起伏自然成爲他們的首要考慮。商業周期是一個用於理解經濟轉變的概念。我們也有一些跟解讀周期相關的主要經濟指標。憑藉經濟指標, 創業家可以追蹤未來的大型波動, 以調整他們的投資及生產。
Entrepreneurs are very sensitive to the environment. Naturally, the ups and downs of the economy will be their top concerns. Business cycle is the concept used to understand these changes. There are major economic indicators associated with reading the the business cycle, which allows entrepreneurs to see how others track major shocks ahead so they can take precaution to adjust their investment and production decisions.
商業周期有四個階段:
1. 收縮
2. 低谷
3. 擴張
4. 頂峰
Business cycle is consisted of four phases:
1. Contraction
2. Trough
3. Expansion
4. Peak
收縮期間, 經濟活動會放緩。強勁的收縮會引致低谷。當經濟跌至最低點, 它會開始改善, 上升, 從而帶來擴張期。擴張時, 經濟活動會增加至頂峰。隨後, 另一波的收縮又將到來。如果經濟嚴重轉差, 我們便會面臨經濟衰退。一般而言, 經濟的擴張及收縮會影響許多行業和公司。不少經濟指標能被用來理解趨勢。但是, 也有專家不認可這些指標的計時方式。市場上有很多其他的指標, 例如住宅動工指數 、 利率 、 價格指數。經濟學家運用這些指標去追蹤及預測商業周期的改變。
The contraction phase involves a period where economic activity begins to slow. If the contraction is intense enough, it will lead to a trough. When the trough reaches its bottom, it will start to take up again, bringing about an expansion phase. During this phase, economic activity will pick up again until it reaches the peak, beginning another round of downturn. A recession will occur if the downturn is severe enough. In general, the expansions and contractions of the economy will affect many industries and companies. Economic indicators are widely available to help read the trends. However, even experts disagree on the timing of these so-called leading indicators. There are many other indicators, such as housing starts, interest rates and price indices, that economists look to help tracking and forecasting changes in business cycles.
經濟指標可分為三類:領先 、 落後 、 同時。領先的指標表示經濟的未來事件。同時指標反映同期的經濟活動。落後指標示意過去的事件。美國全國經濟研究所每月運用就業率、 工業生產 、 個人收入水平和生產貿易額去追蹤商業周期。消費支出與採購經理指數反映出消費者情緒及未來購買意欲, 而這些包含了經濟普遍展望的許多資料。股票市場指數是另外一個廣為人知的指標。
There are three types of economic indicators: leading, lagging, and coincident. The leading indicators signal future events in the economy, whereas the coincident indicators signal concurrent economic events. The lagging indicators happen after the economic events have already taken place. In United States, the National Bureau of Research (NBER) uses employment rates, industrial production, personal income levels, and manufacturing and trade sales to track business cycles on a monthly basis. Consumer sentiment and future purchasing decisions as reflected in consumer spending and purchase manager indices can tell a lot about the general outlook of the economy. Stock market index is also another leading indicator.
創業家希望長遠資本投資及短期生產決定符合商業周期和經濟指標。他們想要知道何時應該減 少和增加存貨及招聘。
Entrepreneurs would want to ensure their long-term capital investment decision and short-term production decision be informed by knowledge of business cycle and the use of economic indicators. They want to know when it is advantageous to cut down on inventory and hiring and when it is advantageous to ramp up production capacity and hire more people.
扼要
1. 商業周期是用於描述經濟起伏的概念。
2. 經濟周期一共有四個階段。
3. 經濟指標可分為三種:領先 、 落後 、 同時。
4. 美國全國經濟研究所每月運用就業率, 工業生產、個人收入水平和生產貿易額去追蹤
商業周期。
5. 創業家希望長遠資本投資及短期生產決定符合商業周期和經濟指標。
Major points to recap
1. Business cycle is the concept used to describe the ups and downs of economic activities.
2. Economic cycle is consisted of four phases.
3. There are three types of economic indicators: leading, lagging, and coincident.
4. In United States, the National Bureau of Research (NBER) uses employment rates, industrial production, personal income levels, and manufacturing and trade sales to track business cycles on a monthly basis.
5. Entrepreneurs would want to ensure their long-term capital investment decision and short-term production decision be informed by knowledge of business cycle and the use of economic indicators.
問題
1. 香港旅遊發展局的訪客數據能成為商業前景的指標之一嗎?
2. 旅客的增長及下滑會對什麽行業造成影響?
Questions:
1. Can the visitor arrival statistics reported by the Hong Kong Tourism Board be used as one of the indicators of business outlook in a business cycle?
2. What kind of business will be affected by the downturn and increases in the visitor arrival counts?